Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not a model for China and Taiwan


BRUSSELS, May 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — beijing watch carefully RussiaUkraine events to illuminate and update its geostrategic and military hypotheses. But widespread concerns that China has similar designs for Taiwan are ill-founded. Moreover, the way the Ukraine the situation unfolds makes a Chinese assault less probably no more.

This information and much more comes from TaiwanUkraine: A pragmatic assessment, a new analysis of the Sino-Western geopolitical landscape by the Conference Board.

China lack of military preparation, Western determination to support Taiwanand the huge economic costs that sanctions would impose are three reasons why a Ukraine– like an invasion of Taiwan is not in the cards. However, since the beginning of this war at the end of February, companies must be ready for the “grey swans” and prepare for all eventualities.

“What we have learned from Ukraine is that we cannot categorically rule out Chinese aggression, based on our assumptions about what is rational,” he said. David Hoffmanfirst vice-president, Asiaat the Conference Board. “Given the heavy reliance of multinationals on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, companies and policymakers would be wise to plan for the worst and seek to reduce semiconductor supply chain concentrations. drivers on the island.”

Regardless of the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwancontingency planning for geopolitical instability is now a critical risk management requirement for multinational companies, especially with regard to China– related tensions.

Key information from TaiwanUkraine: A pragmatic assessment:

  • China the army has excellent defensive capabilities but, even by its own assessment, lacks the combined force capabilities for a complex “quick win” offensive.
  • A protracted battle, like what we see in Ukrainewould be devastating for Chinaboth economically and geopolitically.
  • Taiwan is, comparatively speaking, a very difficult military target due to the ocean crossing, the landings on the fortified beaches and the very mountainous terrain.
  • The war in Ukraine has galvanized the West’s resolve to resist authoritarianism, and the region sees support for Taiwan to a climax. It’s a bad time for China.
  • China is a much more trade-related and world-dependent economy than Russia. Among the consequences: the measures that the West has put in place against Russia are much more important deterrents to China than they were for Russia.
  • NATO’s war-inspired combination of solidarity Ukraineextending the deterrence initiatives undertaken in Asia to strengthen regional stability, and initiatives Japan strengthen their self-defense capacities against Chinaundoubtedly cause China military planners to update their past scenarios on the risks of a military move Taiwan.

For more information on how the war in Ukraine could have an impact on the geopolitical landscape of East Asia, Read the report or contact the Conference Board for comment.

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SOURCE The Conference Board


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